Bad news for Celtic as stats suggest Hearts have 80% chance of winning the Scottish Premiership

Hearts have an 80% chance of winning the Scottish Premiership this season if stats from the last 10 years are to be believed.

Inspired by Tony Bloom’s Jamestown Analytics capability and the steady hand of Derek McInnes leading the squad, Hearts are sitting pretty with a six-point gap over Celtic. 

Looking back over the last decade, the team top of the table after 10 games played has only failed to go on and win the title on two occasions. 

On that basis, Hearts have an 80% chance of being crowned Scottish champions for 2025/26. 

Great news for the Jambos, but the reality is that there is a long way to go with some signs of resurgence in Glasgow. 

Celtic have been Hearts’ nearest challengers so far this campaign, now led by Martin O’Neill following the acrimonious departure of Brendan Rodgers. 

The recently departed Celtic boss won the Scottish league four times with the Parkhead club, across two stints (2016/17, 2017/18, 2023/24, 2024/25) 

He won’t be repeating the feat this season, but it remains to be seen if interim boss Martin O’Neill or the next Celtic manager can lead the club to a 13th title in the last 14 seasons. 

In that regard, the Scottish Premiership has been a monopoly in recent times. 

Rangers’ breakthrough title under Steven Gerrard in 2021 was a landmark victory for the club following the lost decade of administration and rebuilding that followed. 

The Ibrox club didn’t kick on after its 55th title, with one false dawn after another. The latest failure was the Russell Martin experiment, which has paved the way for Danny Rohl’s arrival on Edmiston Drive. 

He has shown some early signs of hope, but with a limited squad, it will be a tall order to be genuine title challengers this season. 

Historic challenges for Hearts to overcome to be champions of Scotland

The last time a club outside the Old Firm won the Scottish title was Alex Ferguson’s Aberdeen in 1984/85, 40 years ago.

That is the historic challenge that Hearts have to face down in the coming months if they are to go all the way, but they also have their own past to rectify. 

In 1985/86, the title was within touching distance on the last day of the season. 

Hearts required just a draw against Dundee at Dens Park to bring the trophy back to Gorgie. They led Celtic by a better goal difference of four, so it’s fair to say the odds were stacked in the leaders’ favour.

80 minutes had elapsed with the score locked at 0-0, then they imploded. Two goals from Albert Kidd in the last 10 minutes gift-wrapped the glory for Celtic, who romped to a 5-0 victory over St Mirren at their Love Street ground.

Hearts top the table under George Burley in 2005

The last time Hearts have had such a good start to a league campaign was in the 2005/06 season, at a very volatile period at Tynecastle. The club was led by maverick Lithuanian owner Vladimir Romanov, but former Ipswich boss George Burley had the team flying out of the traps.

Top of the table and unbeaten, Hearts won eight of their first 10 games, creating a three-point lead. 

George Burley was sacked after 10 league games with Hearts top of the table in October 2005. Derek McInnes has now matched his record after his first 10 games in charge, with the same number of points, same number of goals and a bigger cushion at the top pic.twitter.com/qn4JBGIi2F

— Anthony Brown (@anthonyabrown) October 30, 2025

At the same stage this season, Hearts are in a better position with a six-point lead. 

Derek McInnes revealed the next target is to get to the November international break at the top of the table, with these comments after Wednesday’s draw at St. Mirren.

“We dust ourselves down. It’s a point. Notoriously difficult place, but we’re going into November now, unbeaten, top of the league. And if somebody told me that at the start of this season, we’d be six points clear of Celtic after 10 games, you’d have grabbed that. So I think it’s important for a bit of perspective.

He added, “Two home games now coming up against both Dundee teams. Looking forward to those. Obviously, to try and finish this first quarter of games off top of the league, which was what we set out to do a few weeks ago.

“Can we get to the first round of games top of the league? We’re going to be that. Hopefully, we can do it with another win.”

With the stats suggesting that Hearts have an 80% chance of winning the Scottish Premiership this season, the next few months promise to be a thrilling, rollercoaster ride to the end.

Image credit: sked21/X