Boston Celtics win total for 2025-26 season set at over/under 43.5

July 8, 2025

Bookmakers are forecasting a down year for the Boston Celtics, whose win total for the 2025-26 NBA season has been set at 43.5.

Punters can get odds of 20/23 on over 43.5 or 20/21 on under 43.5 with the top betting sites in Ireland as sights are lowered significantly for the 2024 champions.

Last month, the Celtics traded two core pieces in Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis which will save the team nearly $180 million in luxury tax penalties.

Boston has overspent the mark in recent years in order to give itself the best possible chance of winning a title and the ultimate goal was achieved last year but that business model is far from sustainable.

The NBA operates on a soft salary cap, meaning you can exceed it if you wish but teams who sit above the luxury tax line at $189.7 million are forced to pay premiums for every dollar beyond it.

The Celtics were so deep that they were facing what are called second apron penalties if they kept the same roster, which included having future first-round picks frozen or moved to the back of the first round.

Teams inside the second apron, set at $207.8 million, also cannot use the mid-level exception or cash in trades. By moving Holiday and Porzingis, general manager Brad Stevens has generated increased flexibility and Boston is no longer in a set of steel handcuffs.

The Celtics are still above the first apron though, with various restrictions including a block on sign-and-trades if the player acquired keeps the team above the apron.

Don’t expect their business to be done however, as when the restricted free agent market heats up there are likely to be more changes. Boston has been a tax team for the last three years and teams are hit with harsh repeater penalties when exceeding the mark in three of four seasons.

Currently, the Celtics are around $20 million over the luxury tax line and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the team escape it completely before the start of the new season.

That is in large part due to the fact that Boston’s perennial MVP candidate and four-time All-NBA First Team star Jayson Tatum is expected to miss the entirety of the year after suffering an achilles tear in May.

The Celtics won 51 games in 2021-22, 57 in 2022-23, 64 in 2023-24 and 61 in 2024-25. Next season, Boston will go as far as Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard can take them.

Veteran big man Al Horford is also unlikely to return to the team and it’s fair to say supporters will probably be pleased with simply advancing to the postseason.