Close sidebar

Golf Tips – 10 Week Update and Analysis

As we all know, golf tipping can be a hazardous pastime.

It can have many uses, though. It’s often used for gambling purposes, league and fantasy competitions, and/or bragging rights. So we at Pundit Arena have compiled the results of our first ten weeks of tipping on both the European and PGA Tours, to hopefully determine whether there are trends to take advantage of, or if we’re just talking out of our arses.

The results are listed below (click expand for better viewing), and the main stats read as follows:

  • Total Staked: €126
  • Total Return: €176.60
  • Net Profit for 10 weeks: €50.60
  • Most profitable player: J.B Holmes
  • Most profitable tournament: Shell Houston Open
  • Most placed player: Justin Rose (twice)
  • Weeks in profit: Five
  • Weeks in loss: Five
  • Winners: Three
  • Each way places: Seven
  • Profitable players: Ten

Some notes on the file:

  • The typical stake on a player is €1 each way (totalling €2 per player).
  • The stake on a longshot is 50c e/w (totalling €1 per player).
  • Stakes are doubled for Majors (e.g the Masters that took place in week 4), making the above stakes €4 and €2 respectively.
  • Totals were tallied for each week rather than for each tournament.
  • Each way refers to a top five (sometimes six) finish, which usually pays out a quarter of the amount an outright win would.
  • Weeks in which none of our picks placed were very painful.

All in all, it’s been a very positive start. Not only have we made an overall profit, but it’s also well over the break-even point. Two of the winners we picked were both tournament favourites at 9/1 (which still yields a decent return). The main criteria for our selections were course form and current statistics.

In our experience, we found that current form was the greatest indicator of success (certainly a large factor in the three winners picked), which was followed by current stats, with course form actually lagging behind. Some believe that a player with bad course form is more likely to live up to their pre-conceived billing (i.e to play bad), than a player with good course form – which is a good indicator but no guarantee of success.

The highest price we received a return from was 70/1 (Cameron Tringale). Most of our longshots, basically any player with three-figure odds, were nowhere near contention. That isn’t a cue to exclude them from our plans just yet, as many players have ripped up the formbook over the ten weeks.

Matt Every retained his Arnold Palmer Invitational crown at 175/1. James Morrison was available to win the Open de Espana at 250/1. Also, players upwards of 300/1 routinely place on both Tours, so the hidden gems are out there.

While on the topic of prices, if we’ve learned one thing from our excursions, it’s that a short price is no guarantee of a return. We’ve had multiple short priced players come up short, and it’s a very line between making a profit and having a wipeout loss in a given week.

While J.B Holmes’ win at 40/1 gave us our highest return, we’re more proud of the result from week 9, where half of our six players placed each way. That’s three players placed in the top six on both Tours – which results in three picks in the top 12 in a field of 312 players. That result astonished us. Perhaps our love of numbers trumps our love of money!

As for the future, we may well move into the realms of tournament group betting, first round leader, top 20 finish etc. We’ll also begin picking six random players per week, to see if throwing a dart at a list of names yields more profit than intensive analysis of statistics.

Any recommendations, requests, suggestions, feedback or criticisms would be greatly welcomed.

Here’s to the next ten weeks!

Read More About: , ,

Author: Chris Kelleher

Student whose interests lie in sports ranging from Darts to MMA, with the likes of Golf, Boxing and Soccer in between. Closet wrestling fan and a lover of sports psychology and stiff jabs.