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The Trends For Finding A Grand National Winner

grand national

On a sensational week for Liverpool all eyes have moved onto Aintree racecourse for their three day meeting,  and in particular their world famous steeplechase, the Grand National.

There has been a huge plunge on Baie Des Iles to win the Randox Health Grand National on Saturday. Punters have latched onto the Ross Sullivan-trained grey mare’s chances in the lead up to the big race. She is now a 16-1 shot, having been 33-1 at the start of the week.

From a form perspective you can see why the seven-year-old is fancied – she relishes soft ground, was sixth in an Irish National and fifth in a Welsh National so clearly stays well – and there is an air of the fairytale about her run in the biggest race in the world.

The horse is not only a grey mare, which should generate plenty of interest for the once-a-year gamblers, but Katie Walsh, third on Seabass in 2012, also takes the ride for her trainer and Husband. The combination of these factors could even catapult Baie Des Iles into favouritism by the time the race begins at 5.15pm.

If the dashing grey is going to succeed she has to buck the trends. The last mare to win the race was Nickel Coin in 1951. Furthermore, you have to go back to 1940 to find the last seven-year-old to triumph.

The key trends for finding a winner are:

– The last 13 winners have been aged between eight and eleven. 

– Only once in the same time span has a horse carried more than 11st 6lb (Many Clouds in 2015)

– Three runs or more in the season

– No more than two career falls

– At least one win over 3m

– Need to have raced within two months prior to the contest

– No outright favourite has won since Hedgehunter in 2005

Good luck with the betting and enjoy what’s sure to be a great race.

David Revers, Racing Post.

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Author: The PA Team

This article was written by a member of The PA Team.