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UFC 236 Main Event Betting Prediction: Holloway vs. Poirier

Right on the heels of an amazing event featuring Jonny Bones, Tyrone Woodley, Ben Askren, and more, we get another star-studded UFC event that shouldn’t be missed.

In Holloway vs. Poirier, top online betting shops have listed Max Holloway as a moderate -250 favourite. But there are some variances in the lines, and some books are offering different options. You can check this Bovada Review to see if they have what you are looking for in an MMA sportsbook.

The McGregor Effect

As already stated above, Max Holloway is listed as the favourite, but is that justified? Well, Max is on a tear. He is the current featherweight champ, and since his loss to McGregor some time ago, he has gone on an epic 13-fight win streak. Some of the names to fall to Holloway are Cub Swanson, Jose Aldo (twice), Anthony Pettis, Jeremy Stevens, Ricardo Lamas, and Brian Ortega.

Dustin Poirier has also been on a great run since losing to McGregor. He has won nine of his last ten, stacking up a healthy resumé of top-ranked fighters like Justin Gaethje, Anthony Pettis,  Eddie Alverez, Joeseph Duffy, and more.

Both of these guys are very well-rounded, seasoned fighters. Poirier’s standing game and cardio are fantastic. Dustin’s wrestling is pretty good and he has an excellent take-down defence.

Max Holloway is an outstanding technical striking ability coupled with next level grappling, both offensive and defensive. Just like Poirier, his cardio is never lacking and his take-down defence is on point. But Holloway has even more of a killer instinct and it seems like over the last couple of years there has been a fire burning inside of him that is only fueled by dominating his opponents.

Max Holloway is moving up in weight to try for the interim lightweight title and in most cases, this would be an uphill battle for the smaller fighter. That said, it shouldn’t factor too much into this fight. Holloway actually has 3 inches on Poirier and two inches of leg reach.

But Dustin Poirier is long-armed for being just 5’9”. His 72-inch reach is three inches better than Max’s so size-wise, it’s pretty even, especially while standing. The extra weight could provide some advantage to Dustin Poirier while on the ground, but even so, Max Halloway is at the very top of his game right now. And even though they have similar skill-sets, Max can do it all a little better.

Expect Max Halloway to systematically dismantle Dustin Poirier with his technical skills. Sure, Poirier is bigger and more powerful so there is always the chance of one landing that ends the fight or is the precursor to the end. But, Holloway has a great chin and an indomitable will to win and that in itself is an advantage.

The last time these two met, Poirier was struggling against a 20-year-old Holloway in his UFC debut. He eventually stopped trying to stand-up and took Holloway down, got the top-mount and eventually the submission. But could that happen again? Doubtful. Both of these fighters lack lateral movement and come straight ahead. But Poirier has developed a habit of pulling back when he is getting pressured. And with Max at the top of his game, he is going to put a lot of pressure on Dustin Poirier.

All in all, Dustin Poirier will provide a good challenge for Max Holloway but this time around it won’t be enough.

Author: Maurice Gleeson

Irish exile currently residing in Barcelona but stay up to the date with the latest in League of Ireland and the Premier League.