Ireland’s World Cup lifeline: Every permutation and probability ahead of crunch game in Budapest

Against all odds, the Republic of Ireland’s World Cup ambitions are still alive after a famous 2-0 win over Portugal in Dublin on Thursday night.

The struggles of the Irish team have been well documented so far in this qualification campaign, which began with a draw against Hungary and was followed by a dismal performance against Armenia and a late defeat to Portugal.

However, Ireland’s fortunes have improved; two home wins in a row against Armenia and Portugal have given Ireland’s World Cup qualification hopes a shot in the arm.

On Thursday night, Troy Parrott was Ireland’s hero with his two well-taken first-half goals, which earned him the Man of the Match award.

After the break, the pantomime villain was Cristiano Ronaldo, who was shown a straight red after he slyly swung an elbow at Irish defender Dara O’Shea off the ball despite promising he was going to try to be a “good boy” in a press conference ahead of Thursday’s game.

Backed by a sold-out and noisy Aviva Stadium, Ireland controlled the second-half to record a famous victory to keep their World Cup dream alive.

So, what do the Boys in Green need to do to secure a play-off spot?

Ireland head to Hungary knowing that it’s win or bust if they want to finish second and secure a World Cup play-off spot.

That’s because the Hungarians currently sit in second on eight points compared to Ireland’s seven after they beat Armenia 1-0 on Thursday, thanks to Barnabás Varga’s 33rd-minute strike.

Thanks to Hungary having a point advantage over Ireland, going into Sunday, a draw is not good enough, so it’s a case of do or die for Ireland.

Can Ireland get all three points in Budapest and secure second and a play-off spot? Of course, they can, but they know they need to refocus and not let the Portugal victory go to their heads.

Ireland are the side with the momentum, but they need to make it count. They know they are in for a battle; Hungary, on and off the pitch, won’t make life easy for the Boys in Green.

Ireland must rally and go again, and if they show the same discipline and structure and Parrott is able to cause problems in attack, then, remarkably, despite their poor start, Ireland could secure a play-off spot.

What needs to happen for Ireland to qualify for the World Cup automatically?

Unbelievably, Ireland can still win Group F, as crazy as that sounds. However, that probability is a long shot.

If Ireland pull off another heroic display and win 3-0 and Portugal somehow lose to Armenia, then Ireland will win the group and will be able to start planning for the World Cup next year.

This is because while Ireland will be level on points with them, Heimir Hallgrímsson’s men will be ahead of them on the head-to-head rule.

Portugal beat Ireland 1-0, but Ireland’s 2-0 win on Thursday gives the Irish an advantage.

Stranger things have happened; the fact that Ireland have their destiny in their own hands is a miracle in itself, and the whole country will be tuning in on Sunday hoping Ireland’s World Cup dream is still alive come full-time.

Where to watch the Hungary v Ireland World Cup qualifier?

You can watch the Republic of Ireland’s biggest game in years live this Sunday, the 16th November, live on RTÉ 2. Coverage begins at 1:30pm with the big game kicking off at 2pm.

Experienced sports journalist with expertise in GAA (Gaelic games), football, cricket, rugby and more. I frequently cover GAA for Irish daily national newspapers, the GAA, and Irish state broadcaster RTÉ. I am also on the media teams at London & Dublin GAA. My football experience includes work at professional football clubs such as Queens Park Rangers, Wimbledon and Arsenal. I have also covered major competitions such as the Champions League and Euro 2024. Outside of the sports above, I co-ran the official social media channels of the Paris 2024 Paralympic Games.

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